This is an attempt to define new benchmarks that Sanders (and by reverse engineering, Clinton, but mostly Sanders) must meet in order to obtain a majority of pledged delegates in the remaining presidential primary and caucus elections. With a few exceptions, these are not predictions. For those, you might check out Nate Sanders' March 15 model based on demographic results to date, including Sanders’ win in Michigan, or Chris Bowers' March 9 projections. (Note that Sanders has outperformed Bowers’ projections.) The point is that it’s one thing to say conceptually that Sanders needs to do better than targets created weeks ago to make up lost ground created by failure to meet earlier targets, and another to see what that means in specific, concrete goals. You may think some of these are way off. That may be. To the extent one of these goals is surpassed, that’s fewer delegates to come from somewhere else. To the extent one of these goals is not met, that’s more that need to be made up somewhere else. For reference purposes, here are the older targets 538 is still using, which I think have become too out of date to be very useful.
As of this writing, according to 538.com, 828 delegates could be assigned to Sanders (and 1151 to Clinton) based on elections that had already been occurred, with another 39 delegates yet to be allocated based on the March 15 contests. That includes 12 in Florida, (of which Sanders would get 4 if the current breakdown holds), two in Ohio, which I assume are split evenly, and a whopping 21 in Illinois, which I assume go 10 to Sanders and 11 to Clinton. That brings Sanders’ total up to 843 as we look ahead.
Hillary’s Hell Month: One thing Sanders and Clinton supporters can agree on is that the set of contests between today and New York favors Sanders, with Washington and Wisconsin being the two biggest prizes. This segment of the calendar is heavy on Mountain West states and other states in which white Democrats make up a large percentage of the electorate. Sanders’ record in these kind of states has been positive, ranging from a 1.5 to 1 delegate advantage (NE) to a 2.5 to 1 advantage (KS). Overall, it’s not unreasonable to assume Sanders wins most of these contests at a 2 to 1 advantage. You can assume a slightly higher ratio, but the numbers of delegates are so small in most cases it doesn’t make much of a difference.
March 22 (AZ, ID, UT). I assume Sanders will get 16 of Idaho’s 23 delegates and 22 of Utah’s 33 delegates. Arizona is a state where the two camps publicly express wildly different projections, with Sanders supporters suggesting this is where the wheels start to come off the Clinton campaign, with Clinton supporters pointing to the large number of senior and Latino voters as favoring her. For Sanders to get back on track, I assume he needs to get 45 of Arizona’s 75 delegates (a 1.5 to 1 ratio). By way of comparison, Bowers predicts a 12/11 split in ID for Sanders, a 22/11 split in Utah, and a 25/50 split in Arizona (2 to 1 against Sanders). This is a good example of how Bowers is selling Sanders short. Silver predicts the popular vote goes 47 to 52 against Sanders in Arizona, and in his favor 57-42 in Idaho and 59-40 in Utah.
March 26 (AK, HI, WA). I assume Sanders will get 11 of Alaska’s 16 delegates and 17 of Hawaii’s 25 delegates. For him to get on track, he needs about 65 of Washington’s 101 delegates. Washington is a caucus, which favors him slightly, but closed, which favors Clinton. Washington is also one of the most liberal states in the country. Advantage Sanders, but the extent of the advantage remains to be seen.
April 5 (WI, WY). I assume Sanders will get 10 of Wyoming’s 14 delegates. Wisconsin elected Scott Brown [ETA: Walker! That’s what I get for not proofreading], but also elected Russ Feingold several times before his defeat in a wave election. It’s also fairly white, and shares some of the politics of its neighbors MN, MI, and IL (home of the FIBs), all states where Sanders did well. Sanders will do very well here. I think he needs to win about 60 of the 86 delegates up for grabs to be on track.
The Closed Primaries: April sees a string of primaries in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast/southern New England region, virtually all of which are true closed primaries. (Sanders does better in “open” primaries allowing crossover voting, “sort of” closed primaries that allow independents to vote, and “closed” primaries that allow someone to register as a member of the primary on the day of the primary. He has not done as well in truly closed primaries, which restrict voting to those registered in the Democratic party as of a date preceding the election.) These primaries also include states in which many Democrats work in the financial services industry, sometimes literally on Wall Street. That’s not to say none of them will vote for Sanders — but his demonizing of them can’t help his margins.
April 19 (NY): The Sanders campaign invests a lot of hope in New York, and it is one of Sanders’ home states and the home to a lot of liberal Democrats. On the flip side, it’s ethnically diverse and voted for Clinton twice (as well as in the 2008 primaries), and it’s a closed primary. There’s also that whole Wall Street thing — not just people who work there, but people who know people who work there and know they aren’t all corrupt oligarchs and capitalist running dogs. To stay on track, I think Sanders needs about 130 of the 247 elected delegates at stake. (Silver’s demographic model predicts a 55-44 popular vote in Clinton’s favor, so this will require some heavy lifting.)
April 26 (CT, DE, MD, PA, RI). The Mid-Atlantic trades VA for CT and RI in this year’s answer to the Chesapeake Primary. Other than RI, every single one of these primaries is closed. I assume that RI turns out somewhere between NH and ME in its outlook, even though it has more in common with MA and CT, and assign 15 of its 24 delegates to Sanders. I expect Clinton to crush Sanders in Maryland and win a clear victory in Delaware, with Connecticut (home to many Wall Streeters) and Pennsylvania potentially being close contests. However, for purposes of this exercise, I assume that for Sanders to stay on track he needs about 30 of CT’s 55 delegates, about 10 of Delaware’s 21 delegates, about 42 of Maryland’s 95 deletgates, and about 100 of Pennsylvania’s 189 delegates.
The Appalachian Trail: Next, the race takes a detour into states that have not been very accepting of President Obama for some odd reason. Clinton will have pockets where she does extremely well, areas where she gets destroyed, and West Virginia, which she should just write off entirely.
May 3 (IN). Lord I can’t go back there. Clinton will do well in Marion County and will do OK in “The Region,” as well as a few other areas. I expect other parts of the state to vote like Oklahoma Democrats and not in favor of Clinton. Bloomington, West Lafayette, and South Bend should be Sanders strongholds. To stay on track, I think he needs 50 of the 83 delegates.
May 7 (Guam!). There are seven delegates. Clinton has been winning the territorial primaries but for purposes of this let’s give Sanders the fourth one.
May 10 (WV). Clinton should meet the 15% threshold, but this will be a very bad state for her. I assume Sanders gets at least 22 of the 29 delegates.
May 14 (Democrats Abroad). Sanders has been killing it in these. I assume he takes all of the 13 delegates.
May 17 (KY, OR). These are both closed contests, but Oregon is Sanders country. Kentucky is a little more of a mixed bag. I think Sanders needs 41 of the 61 Oregon delegates and 30 of the 55 Kentucky delegates.
June 4 (USVI). As with Guam, let’s give Sanders 4 of the Virgin Islands’ 7 delegates.
June 5 (PR). Assuming Puerto Rico votes like Florida, this will be a blood bath for Sanders, but let’s assume an even split of the 60 delegates.
The Showdown: After the June 7 primaries, one of the two Democratic candidates will have won a majority of elected delegates. However, it’s highly unlikely either one of them will reach that mark until June 7. These states run the gamut, but most of them have to be considered neutral territory at best for Sanders.
June 7 (CA, MT, NJ, NM, SD, ND). Some models have Clinton favored in ND but I think that’s whack. I assume Sanders gets 14 of the 21 Montana delegates, 15 of the 20 South Dakota delegates, and 14 of the 18 North Dakota delegates. New Mexico supposedly favors Clinton, but let’s assume Sanders gets 23 of the 34 delegates. That leaves two of the three biggest prizes remaining on the calendar as of March 17, California and New Jersey. Again, lots of Wall Streeters live in New Jersey and it’s ethnically diverse. Sanders’ direct style plays well in New Jersey, but it may not be enough. Regardless, to stay on track I think he needs 65 of the 126 New Jersey delegates.
That leaves the big prize. Many are viewing California as a “honey pot” of delegates that will cure all manner of previous deficiencies, but proportional allocation will limit the total number of delegates that can be pulled out. I think Sanders is going to need to pull out about 275 of the 475 delegates, assuming all these other favorable assumptions hold, and that will require him to win about 57.89% of the vote. That's a tall and very expensive order.
June 14 (DC). Oh, yeah, DC holds the most useless primary ever a week later. Gentrification has made the district only half African American, and Democrats actually living in DC tend to be pretty damn liberal, so this won’t be the lopsided contest it might look like at first blush. Let’s say Sanders gets 8 of the 12 delegates.
Bottom line is Sanders has to draw quite a few inside straights. Clinton’s base includes Bill Clinton loyalists (people who actually voted for Bill and/or defended him during the impeachment are MUCH more likely to support Hillary than those who did not), (some) Barack Obama loyalists, StandByYour(Wo)man Voters (who see a candidate being attacked as evidence that they are doing something right and need to be supported), Social Justice voters, seniors, and women — especially married women. Sanders’ base includes Edwards voters, Occupy supporters, Hopers, Cynics, BurnItAllDowners, gun owners, white unmarried men, and The Youts. Hopefully, these groups can unite in the coming months against their shared enemy — the Judean People’s Front.
