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Part I: Weak Elephants
Part II: New Elephants
Part III: Elephants on the Run
Part IV: Sleeping With the Elephants
Part V (Pink Elephants)

This diary is a compilation of House districts currently held by Republicans in which the 2002 election was decided by 10 points or less.  It's obviously an artificial threshold and will not include all true swing districts.  Conversely, people like Jim Leach are probably not as vulnerable as they appear.

This is a list of the relevant districts, the names of the Republican incumbents, and the web sites of Democratic challengers.  Haven't gotten into open seats yet.  I'm also not evaluating the relative strengths of the various Democratic candidates, which are . . . varied, nor have I yet accounted for such historical facts as whether the seat changed hands in 2002.[EDIT: But stay tune for such issues in later segments.]
(For at least some background, the progressive ratings of the Republicans can be found here: )

Mike Rogers won 50%-48%.  His opponent is

Rick Renzi won 49%-46%.  His opponent is

Bob Beauprez won 48%-47%,  His opponent is

Rob Simmons won 54%-46%.  His opponent is

Nancy Johnson won 54%-43%.  Her opponent is

Virginia Brown-Waite won 48%-46%.  An August 31 primary will select one of four challengers:

The Katherine Harris won 55%-45%.  An August 31 primary will cull her opponent from the following:

Phil Gingrey won 52%-48%.  His opponent is

Max Burns won 55%-45%.  His opponent is:

John Shimkus won 55%-45%.  His opponent is

Chris Chocola, despite his leadership position, won 50%-46%.  His opponent is

Jon Hostettler won 51%-46%.  His opponent is

Jim Leach won 52%-46%.  His opponent is

Tom Latham won 55%-43%.  His opponent is

Anne Northup won 52%-48%.  Her opponent is

John Kline won 53%-42%.  His opponent is

North Carolina-8
Robin Hayes won 54%-45%.  His opponent is

North Carolina-11
An ethically challenged Charles Taylor won 55%-43%.  He will face

Tom Cole won 54%-46%.  His opponent is, sadly, NO ONE.

Jim Gerlach won 51%-49%.  His opponent is the familiar

Finally, a plug for Drew's April diary on the more vulnerable FMA sponsors:
Since that time, Gary King, Bill Gluba, and Anne Wolfe won their primaries and the right to take on Steve Pearce (NM-2), Jim Nussle (IA-1), and Scott Garrett (NJ-5), respectively.

Originally posted to DelRPCV on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 09:52 PM PDT.

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