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Part I: Weak Elephants
Part III: Elephants on the Run
Part IV: Sleeping With the Elephants
Part V (Pink Elephants)

Part Two of a continuing saga and the sequel to "Weak Elephants"
The following are districts in which Republicans were elected for the first time during the 2002 Saxby Chambliss Goodwill Tour.  Historically, incumbents are most likely to lose in the first attempt at being re-elected.  There should be a number of pick up opportunities here; however, not every first-termer is necessarily weak.
Not suprisingly, there is a great deal of overlap between this list and the list of districts in which Republican incumbents won by ten points or less (Weak Elephants). Update: Many have questioned whether some of these districts "should be" on the list because they are not true swing districts. The short answer is that some of them are not true swing districts. However, one of the reasons for creating lists based on objective criteria is to make sure that perceptions of which seats are "safe" are based on more than conventional wisdom and spin.

Alabama 1
Jo Bonner won an open seat 61%-38%.  His opponent is

Alabama 3
Mike Rogers won an open seat 50%-48%.  His opponent is

Arizona 1 (New District)
Rick Renzi won 49%-46%.  His opponent is

Arizona 2
Trent Franks won an open seat 59%-38%.  His opponent is or

California 21 (New District)
Devin Nunes won 70%-27%.  His opponent, Fred Davis, has no web site.

Colorado 4
Go Stan!
(Musgrave won the first round in an open seat in 2002.)

Colorado 7 (New District)
Bob Beauprez won 48%-47%,  His opponent is

Florida 5
Virginia Brown-Waite beat Democratic incumbent Karen Thurman 48%-46%.  An August 31 primary will select one of four challengers:

Florida 13
Katherine Harris won an open seat 55%-45%.  An August 31 primary will cull her opponent from the following:

Florida 24 (New District)
Tom Feeney won 62%-38%.  His opponent is

Florida 25 (New District)
Mario Diaz-Balart won 65%-35%.  His opponent is

Georgia 11
Phil Gingrey won 52%-48%.  His opponent is
(Despite being a first term incumbent with a slim margin, Gingrey has an ultraconserative record.  Reminds me of someone.)

Georgia 12
Max Burns won 55%-45%.  His opponent is:

Indiana 2
Chris Chocola was tapped for a leadership position in his first term despite winning by only 50%-46%.  His opponent is

Michigan 10
Candice Miller won an open seat 63%-36%.  Her opponent, Rob Casey, has no web site.

Michigan 11
Thaddeus McCotter won an open seat 57%-40%.  His opponent is:

Minnesota 2
John Kline beat Democratic incumbent William Luther 53%-42%.  His opponent is

Nevada 3 (New District)
Joe Porter won 56%-37%.  A September 7 primary picks his opponent from: or
Some others with no internet presence are running, too.

New Hampshire 1
Jeb Bradley won an open seat 58%-38%.  Assuming he wins his own primary challenge, his opponent will be chosen by a primary from
Peter Duffy, whose web site is down, or

New Jersey 5
FMA sponsor Scott Garrett won an open seat 60%-38%.  His opponent is

New Mexico 2
FMA sponsor Steve Pearce won an open seat 56%-44%.  His opponent is

Ohio 3
Michael Turner won an open seat 59%-41%.  His opponent is

Oklahoma 1
John Sullivan won a special election in 2001 to replace Hall of Fame wide receiver and arch-conservative tool Steve Largent. His defeat of Doug Dodd 56% to 42% in 2002 was his first victory in a general election. Once again, his opponent is

Oklahoma 4
Tom Cole won an open seat by the slender margin of 54%-46%.  His opponent is, sadly, NO ONE.

Pennsylvania 6 (new District)
Jim Gerlach beat Dan Wofford 51%-49%.  Gerlach's opponent is dKos 8 member

Pennsylvania 18 (New District)
Tim Murphy won 60%-40%.  His opponent is

South Carolina 3
Gresham Barrett won an open seat 67%-31%.  He has no Democratic opponent.  Shame.  The Greens have a write-in candidate.

Tennessee 7
Marsha Blackburn won an open seat 71%-26%.  Her opponent is

Texas 5
Jeb Hensarling won an open seat 58%-40%.  His opponent is

Texas 26
Michael Burgess won an open seat 75%-23%.  His opponent is

Texas 31 (New District)
John carter won 69%-27%.  His opponent is

Texas 32 (New District)
Pete Sessions won 68%-30%.  His opponent after the illegal redistricting is fellow incumbent

EDIT: It hasn't escaped me that some of the new districts featured a clash between incumbents, and that some of those winners had held office before. The point is that for at least some of the voters in the district, the incumbent is "new" to them. Stay tuned for Part III, Elephants on the Run

Originally posted to DelRPCV on Sat Jul 10, 2004 at 03:33 AM PDT.

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