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Part I: Weak Elephants
Part II: New Elephants

Part IV: Sleeping With the Elephants

Part V (Pink Elephants)

In parts I and II of this continuing series, I looked at weak elephants (Republican incuments who won in 2002 by 10 points or fewer) and new elephants (Republican incumbents whose first general elections were in 2002), based on the assumption that 2002 was a "Republican year" and that those two factors would tend to identify seats that could potentially be picked off.  Those historical facts will not change before the 2004 elections.  
In this diary, I look at districts currently held by Republicans (whether or not the incumbents are running for re-election) in which a Democratic challenger has raised at least 25% of the Republican incumbent/replacement's receipts this cycle, with a minimum of $100,000 raised by the Democrat.  Cold blooded and clinical?  Sure.  But nothing succeeds like success, and with few other objective criteria on which to rely, fund raising is going to be the yardstick by which these nascent campaigns are going to be judged for the foreseeable future.  Except as otherwise noted, totals are as of the end of the second quarter (6/30/04) (Obviously, we will need to do better than 25% by the fall, but that's still an indication of early momentum.  With the built-in advantages that incumbents have, 25% early in the game is not shabby.)

These are the districts in which Democrats have thus far been most successful in mobilizing support.  The campaigns of John Salazar, Jon Jennings, Charlie Melancon, Joe Driscoll, Don Barbieri, and Alex Alben have already overtaken their Republican rivals.

In contrast to the factors I looked at previously, this one is at least partially within the control of Democrats.  It should go without saying that this group should, at a minimum, contain all districts in which conditions appear otherwise favorable for a Democratic pickup, with a few longshots as well.   Unfortunately, that is not always the case.  For example, this group does not include all of the "weak elephants."  Among other reasons, the Republicans have been very good at identifying their weak districts and flooding them with cash.  In other districts that should go Democratic, such as the at-large Delaware seat, potentially strong Democratic candidates are biding their time and avoiding tough contests.

$294,273 AL-01 (D) MCCAIN - BELK, JUDY
$800,267 AL-01 (R) BONNER, JOSIAH ROBINS JR.

$714,568 AZ-01 (D) BABBITT JR, PAUL J
$1,283,698 AZ-01 (R) RENZI, RICHARD GEORGE  

$199,537 AR-03 (D) JUDY, JANICE (JAN) A
$444,361 AR-03 (R) BOOZMAN, JOHN NICHOLS

$503,654 CO-03 (D) SALAZAR, JOHN T MR.
$296,550 CO-03 (R) WALCHER, GREGORY EDWARD  
$278,526 CO-03 (R) RIPPY, GREGG PAUL  

$327,051 CO-06 (D) CONTI, JOANNA L
$577,671 CO-06 (R) TANCREDO, THOMAS GERALD  

$356,188 CT-02 (D) SULLIVAN, JAMES M
$1,420,611 CT-02 (R) SIMMONS, ROBERT R  

$721,902 CT-04 (D) FARRELL, DIANE GOSS
$1,044,310 CT-04 (R) SHAYS, CHRISTOPHER

$516,331 FL-13 (D) JENNINGS, CHRISTINE L  
$1,899,224 FL-13 (R) HARRIS, KATHERINE  

$754,262 FL-22 (D) STORK, JAMES R
$989,780 FL-22 (R) SHAW, E CLAY JR  

$867,052 GA-12 (D) BARROW, JOHN J
$1,747,474 GA-12 (R) BURNS, O MAXIE  

$552,231 IL-08 (D) BEAN, MELISSA L
$770,187 IL-08 (R) CRANE, PHILIP M  

$416,047 IN-02 (D) DONNELLY, JOSEPH SIMON
$1,272,537 IN-02 (R) CHOCOLA, J CHRISTOPHER  

$671,178 IN-08 (D) JENNINGS, JON PAUL
$228,051 IN-08 (R) HOSTETTLER, JOHN N  

$560,373 KS-02 (D) BOYDA, NANCY E
$638,041 KS-02 (R) RYUN, JIM R  

$659,870 KY-03 (D) MILLER, PAUL A JR
$2,078,301 KY-03 (R) NORTHUP, ANNE M  

$558,876 LA-03 (D) MELANCON, CHARLES J
$497,611 LA-03 (R) ROMERO, CRAIG F  

$394,559 MN-02 (D) DALY, TERESA ANN
$1,013,000 MN-02 (R) KLINE, JOHN P JR  

$413,370 MN-06 (D) WETTERLING, PATTY
$1,441,192 MN-06 (R) KENNEDY, MARK RAYMOND  

$571,448 MO-06 (D) BROOMFIELD, CHARLES S.
$1,110,047 MO-06 (R) GRAVES, SAMUEL B (SAM)  

$333,454 NE-01 (D) CONNEALY, MATTHEW JAMES
$461,983 NE-01 (R) FORTENBERRY, JEFFREY LANE  

$461,142 NE-02 (D) THOMPSON, NANCY P
$868,017 NE-02 (R) TERRY, LEE  

$789,233 NM-01 (D) ROMERO, RICHARD M.
$1,968,587 NM-01 (R) WILSON, HEATHER A  

$444,509 NM-02 (D) KING, GARY KENNETH  
$1,387,495 NM-02 (R) PEARCE, STEVE  

$860,532 NV-03 (D) GALLAGHER, TOM
$1,750,668 NV-03 (R) PORTER, JON C SR  

$213,545 NH-02 (D) HODES, PAUL W
$411,891 NH-02 (R) BASS, CHARLES F  

$154,301 NY-03 (D) MATHIES, BLAIR
$365,799 NY-03 (R) KING, PETER T  

$300,095 NY-27 (D) HIGGINS, BRIAN M  
$438,535 NY-27 (D) CLARK, PAUL T
$563,618 NY-27 (R) NAPLES, NANCY A  

$170,937 NY-29 (D) BAREND, SAMARA
$350,126 NY-29 (R) NOJAY, BILL  
$334,562 NY-29 (R) ROSENBERGER, GEOFFREY HAROLD
$268,080 NY-29 (R) KUHL, JOHN R JR  
$142,550 NY-29 (R) KOLB, BRIAN M  
$110,445 NY-29 (R) ASSINI, MARK W  

$404,149 NC-11 (D) KEEVER, PATRICIA
$596,969 NC-11 (R) TAYLOR, CHARLES H  

$264,520 OH-03 (D) MITAKIDES, LOUELLA JANE
$800,201 OH-03 (R) TURNER, MIKE  

$631,654 OH-14 (D) CAFARO, CAPRI
$1,168,161 OH-14 (R) LATOURETTE, STEVEN C  

$45,477 OH-16 (D) SEEMANN, JEFF
$126,044 OH-16 (R) REGULA, RALPH S

$727,578 PA-06 (D) MURPHY, LOIS
$1,399,589 PA-06 (R) GERLACH, JIM  

$1,019,148 PA-15 (D) DRISCOLL, JOSEPH
$942,276 PA-15 (R) DENT, CHARLES WIEDER  

$190,002 VA-05 (D) WEED, ALBERT CHARLES II
$429,973 VA-05 (R) GOODE, VIRGIL H JR  

$404,990 VA-10 (D) SOCAS, JAMES ROBERT
$577,981 VA-10 (R) WOLF, FRANK R  

$889,588 WA-05 (D) BARBIERI, DONALD K
$319,072 WA-05 (R) MCMORRIS, CATHY  
$287,658 WA-05 (R) CROSS, SHAUN M
$256,126 WA-05 (R) SHEAHAN, LARRY L  

$741,133 WA-08 (D) ALBEN, ALEX
$328,259 WA-08 (R) TEBELIUS, DIANE
$266,623 WA-08 (R) REICHERT, DAVE  
$218,748 WA-08 (R) LEE, CONRAD  
$155,421 WA-08 (R) ESSER, LUKE  

$172,939 WI-05 (D) KENNEDY, BRYAN LEIGH WOODFORD
$555,688 WI-05 (R) SENSENBRENNER, F JAMES JR  

One special case is PA-08.  Greenwood raised over 800K this cycle, but that money cannot be transferred directly to whomever replaces him as the Republican nominee, even if Greenwood wanted to do so.  Ginny Schrader continues to raise money for what will be a very tough race, and at this point is the presumptive money leader.

I should also point out that some people, like Dave Thomas in CO-07, have been doing a great job developing their campaigns and just missed the cut this quarter because of expanded efforts on the other side. EDIT: I just noticed Jeff Seemann doesn't meet my 100K minimum criterion. I'm leaving him in because his opponent is coasting so badly, but purists and data collectors should be aware of this.

Originally posted to DelRPCV on Fri Jul 23, 2004 at 10:27 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Comme d'habitude (4.00)
    Comments, suggestions, and correctionc cheerfully accepted.
  •  Belk? (none)
    Is she related to the family that owns the department store called Belk?
    •  Don't know (none)
      Possible but I haven't heard that.  From her web site:
      Judy Belk is a successful businesswoman and community leader who has lived in South Alabama for over thirty years.  She graduated from the University of South Alabama in Mobile with a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Education and a Master of Arts degree in Secondary Education.  
      Judy began her career in real estate when she joined Duke Real Estate in Mobile in 1979.  She started her own real estate business, McCain Real Estate, in 1981 and she builds and develops properties throughout Alabama.  In 1985, Judy entered the franchise restaurant business.  She expanded the business and opened restaurants throughout the state including locations in Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Pickens, and Hale counties.
      •  Well (none)
        her resume is impressive. I wonder if she is related to the family who owns the store. If she does she is a good candidate automatically. Having that last name in the South amounts to good name recongition.
  •  Thanks for the numbers (none)
    Ok, I could do this, but I am lazy (and you probably have some spreadsheets to help).

    Could you tell us which races are in categories I or II and are also in III?  I know Lois Murphy is, for example.  

    Then somebody needs to look at who the weak donkey incumbents are, off course...  I'd volunteer but that would ensure that it would not happen!

  •  Greenwood's bundle (none)
    "Greenwood raised over 800K this cycle, but that money cannot be transferred directly to whomever replaces him as the Republican nominee, even if Greenwood wanted to do so.  Ginny Schrader continues to raise money for what will be a very tough race, and at this point is the presumptive money leader."

    That money, as was quite often mentioned during the Bob Torricelli fiasco, can be quite easily (and legally) laundered.

    It won't be directly transferred, but you can definately bet that it will be indirectly transferred.

    •  No guarantee (none)
      For a variety of reasons mentioned in my diary, I wouldn't take that bet.
      1.  Greenwood is retiring to go into lobbying.  His old peers like him already, but they'll like him even more after he gives them nice envelopes.
      2.  In 2002, Frist filed a suit to prevent Torricelli from transferring his funds to the DSCC, to be transferred to Lautenberg.  For whatever reason, Torricelli wound up putting virtually all of his money into a PAC.  Republicans are hypocritical when it comes time for them to follow the rules, but they will have to assess whether it's worth the blowback.
      3.  Assuming Greenwood does the loyal party man thing and gives his war chest to the party, rather than using it to jump start his new career, it could hypothetically be used in any number of races, not limited to PA-08.
      For at least these reasons, it's a mistake to assume that Greenwood money is automatically sitting in the campaign account of whomever replaces him.  It's more accurate to assume that the RNC could potentially receive yet another substantial contribution in the next few months.
      •  2002 was before McCain-Feingold (none)
        No, I am not an expert on this or even close.  But the rules are different now.  
      •  On Torricelli... (none)
        "For whatever reason, Torricelli wound up putting virtually all of his money into a PAC."

        Primarily because Torricelli was an asshole who absolutely despised Frank Lautenberg.

        "Assuming Greenwood does the loyal party man thing and gives his war chest to the party, rather than using it to jump start his new career, it could hypothetically be used in any number of races, not limited to PA-08."

        Of course, but let's not be stupid here -- that money is going to flow where it's needed the most.  The only reason why it wouldn't go to Greenwood's successor is if Greenwood's successor is doing so well in fundraising that he doesn't even need it.

        •  No (none)
          Why assume it would go to PA-08?  Why not GA-12?  Or NV-03? Or one of the Democratic districts the Republicans are trying to take?  Some might wind up in PA-08, but there's no reason to assume it would be the whole thing.  With Greenwood going into lobbying, there is every reason to think he will want to share the wealth.

          And please don't call me stupid again.

          •  Hypersensitive of me (none)
            Sorry for taking offense where I'm sure none was intended.  I think we both can agree that the Republican candidate will be well-financed.  My point is that people shouldn't just assume the Democrat is already hundreds of thousands of dollars in the hole. At least at this early stage, Schrader has good positive momentum on which to build.  Let's hope she does.

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