Part I: Weak Elephants
Part II: New Elephants
Part IV: Sleeping With the Elephants
Part V (Pink Elephants)
In parts I and II of this continuing series, I looked at weak elephants (Republican incuments who won in 2002 by 10 points or fewer) and new elephants (Republican incumbents whose first general elections were in 2002), based on the assumption that 2002 was a "Republican year" and that those two factors would tend to identify seats that could potentially be picked off. Those historical facts will not change before the 2004 elections.
In this diary, I look at districts currently held by Republicans (whether or not the incumbents are running for re-election) in which a Democratic challenger has raised at least 25% of the Republican incumbent/replacement's receipts this cycle, with a minimum of $100,000 raised by the Democrat. Cold blooded and clinical? Sure. But nothing succeeds like success, and with few other objective criteria on which to rely, fund raising is going to be the yardstick by which these nascent campaigns are going to be judged for the foreseeable future. Except as otherwise noted, totals are as of the end of the second quarter (6/30/04) (Obviously, we will need to do better than 25% by the fall, but that's still an indication of early momentum. With the built-in advantages that incumbents have, 25% early in the game is not shabby.)
These are the districts in which Democrats have thus far been most successful in mobilizing support. The campaigns of John Salazar, Jon Jennings, Charlie Melancon, Joe Driscoll, Don Barbieri, and Alex Alben have already overtaken their Republican rivals.
In contrast to the factors I looked at previously, this one is at least partially within the control of Democrats. It should go without saying that this group should, at a minimum, contain all districts in which conditions appear otherwise favorable for a Democratic pickup, with a few longshots as well. Unfortunately, that is not always the case. For example, this group does not include all of the
"weak elephants." Among other reasons, the Republicans have been very good at identifying their weak districts and
flooding them with cash. In other districts that should go Democratic, such as the at-large Delaware seat, potentially strong Democratic candidates are biding their time and avoiding tough contests.
$294,273 AL-01 (D) MCCAIN - BELK, JUDY
$800,267 AL-01 (R) BONNER, JOSIAH ROBINS JR.
$714,568 AZ-01 (D) BABBITT JR, PAUL J
$1,283,698 AZ-01 (R) RENZI, RICHARD GEORGE
$199,537 AR-03 (D) JUDY, JANICE (JAN) A
$444,361 AR-03 (R) BOOZMAN, JOHN NICHOLS
$503,654 CO-03 (D) SALAZAR, JOHN T MR.
$296,550 CO-03 (R) WALCHER, GREGORY EDWARD
$278,526 CO-03 (R) RIPPY, GREGG PAUL
$327,051 CO-06 (D) CONTI, JOANNA L
$577,671 CO-06 (R) TANCREDO, THOMAS GERALD
$356,188 CT-02 (D) SULLIVAN, JAMES M
$1,420,611 CT-02 (R) SIMMONS, ROBERT R
$721,902 CT-04 (D) FARRELL, DIANE GOSS
$1,044,310 CT-04 (R) SHAYS, CHRISTOPHER
$516,331 FL-13 (D) JENNINGS, CHRISTINE L
$1,899,224 FL-13 (R) HARRIS, KATHERINE
$754,262 FL-22 (D) STORK, JAMES R
$989,780 FL-22 (R) SHAW, E CLAY JR
$867,052 GA-12 (D) BARROW, JOHN J
$1,747,474 GA-12 (R) BURNS, O MAXIE
$552,231 IL-08 (D) BEAN, MELISSA L
$770,187 IL-08 (R) CRANE, PHILIP M
$416,047 IN-02 (D) DONNELLY, JOSEPH SIMON
$1,272,537 IN-02 (R) CHOCOLA, J CHRISTOPHER
$671,178 IN-08 (D) JENNINGS, JON PAUL
$228,051 IN-08 (R) HOSTETTLER, JOHN N
$560,373 KS-02 (D) BOYDA, NANCY E
$638,041 KS-02 (R) RYUN, JIM R
$659,870 KY-03 (D) MILLER, PAUL A JR
$2,078,301 KY-03 (R) NORTHUP, ANNE M
$558,876 LA-03 (D) MELANCON, CHARLES J
$497,611 LA-03 (R) ROMERO, CRAIG F
$394,559 MN-02 (D) DALY, TERESA ANN
$1,013,000 MN-02 (R) KLINE, JOHN P JR
$413,370 MN-06 (D) WETTERLING, PATTY
$1,441,192 MN-06 (R) KENNEDY, MARK RAYMOND
$571,448 MO-06 (D) BROOMFIELD, CHARLES S.
$1,110,047 MO-06 (R) GRAVES, SAMUEL B (SAM)
$333,454 NE-01 (D) CONNEALY, MATTHEW JAMES
$461,983 NE-01 (R) FORTENBERRY, JEFFREY LANE
$461,142 NE-02 (D) THOMPSON, NANCY P
$868,017 NE-02 (R) TERRY, LEE
$789,233 NM-01 (D) ROMERO, RICHARD M.
$1,968,587 NM-01 (R) WILSON, HEATHER A
$444,509 NM-02 (D) KING, GARY KENNETH
$1,387,495 NM-02 (R) PEARCE, STEVE
$860,532 NV-03 (D) GALLAGHER, TOM
$1,750,668 NV-03 (R) PORTER, JON C SR
$213,545 NH-02 (D) HODES, PAUL W
$411,891 NH-02 (R) BASS, CHARLES F
$154,301 NY-03 (D) MATHIES, BLAIR
$365,799 NY-03 (R) KING, PETER T
$300,095 NY-27 (D) HIGGINS, BRIAN M
$438,535 NY-27 (D) CLARK, PAUL T
$563,618 NY-27 (R) NAPLES, NANCY A
$170,937 NY-29 (D) BAREND, SAMARA
$350,126 NY-29 (R) NOJAY, BILL
$334,562 NY-29 (R) ROSENBERGER, GEOFFREY HAROLD
$268,080 NY-29 (R) KUHL, JOHN R JR
$142,550 NY-29 (R) KOLB, BRIAN M
$110,445 NY-29 (R) ASSINI, MARK W
$404,149 NC-11 (D) KEEVER, PATRICIA
$596,969 NC-11 (R) TAYLOR, CHARLES H
$264,520 OH-03 (D) MITAKIDES, LOUELLA JANE
$800,201 OH-03 (R) TURNER, MIKE
$631,654 OH-14 (D) CAFARO, CAPRI
$1,168,161 OH-14 (R) LATOURETTE, STEVEN C
$45,477 OH-16 (D) SEEMANN, JEFF
$126,044 OH-16 (R) REGULA, RALPH S
$727,578 PA-06 (D) MURPHY, LOIS
$1,399,589 PA-06 (R) GERLACH, JIM
$1,019,148 PA-15 (D) DRISCOLL, JOSEPH
$942,276 PA-15 (R) DENT, CHARLES WIEDER
$190,002 VA-05 (D) WEED, ALBERT CHARLES II
$429,973 VA-05 (R) GOODE, VIRGIL H JR
$404,990 VA-10 (D) SOCAS, JAMES ROBERT
$577,981 VA-10 (R) WOLF, FRANK R
$889,588 WA-05 (D) BARBIERI, DONALD K
$319,072 WA-05 (R) MCMORRIS, CATHY
$287,658 WA-05 (R) CROSS, SHAUN M
$256,126 WA-05 (R) SHEAHAN, LARRY L
$741,133 WA-08 (D) ALBEN, ALEX
$328,259 WA-08 (R) TEBELIUS, DIANE
$266,623 WA-08 (R) REICHERT, DAVE
$218,748 WA-08 (R) LEE, CONRAD
$155,421 WA-08 (R) ESSER, LUKE
$172,939 WI-05 (D) KENNEDY, BRYAN LEIGH WOODFORD
$555,688 WI-05 (R) SENSENBRENNER, F JAMES JR
One special case is PA-08. Greenwood raised over 800K this cycle, but that money cannot be transferred directly to whomever replaces him as the Republican nominee, even if Greenwood wanted to do so. Ginny Schrader continues to raise money for what will be a very tough race, and at this point is the presumptive money leader.
I should also point out that some people, like Dave Thomas in CO-07, have been doing a great job developing their campaigns and just missed the cut this quarter because of expanded efforts on the other side.
EDIT: I just noticed Jeff Seemann doesn't meet my 100K minimum criterion. I'm leaving him in because his opponent is coasting so badly, but purists and data collectors should be aware of this.